Off hiatus, and the End Of IP

I have been on hiatus from Claimed Elements for a little while (which is official-ese for "I had other more pressing things to do").  However, much like the leaves change, so does my desire to blog.

A lot of this change in desire has come from some recent developments in the "End all IP" Troika of economists, open source software mavens, and Pacific Rim Software Pirates.

Recently, a study produced by the St. Louis Fed ( Paper can be found here) makes a strenuous call for the abolition of patents.  In brief, the authors conclude that there is no benefit to innovation by adopting a patent system. Let me state 1) that the St. Louis Fed has better things to do than opine on Patent Law. 2) They really should have better things to do than opine on Patent Law (Like calling for an increase in marginal lending practices so as to allow people easier debt servicing (oh, you don't like it when Patent Lawyers go all "economist speak", well turnabout is fair play.")

Obviously, I disagree, and not just because I like getting a paycheck.  There is a major fallacy lurking at the heart of the study.

Comparison.

Now, I grant you that Patent law has gotten a bit out of hand (something I call the Locust Syndrome, but more on that another time), but there is absolutely no way to determine if a system with or without patents produces more innovation.

Why. Because we don't have a second, alternative reality Earth to use as a control.  The authors focus (as most anti-IP people do) on Software Patents.  The problem is that they can not point to another first world, industrialized nation with the infrastructure and educational system necessary to produce sophisticated software code. We can't say that in 1520, the rate of innovation was better or worse than the rate of innovation today. The circumstances of innovation and progress are the end result of  historical accidents, low hanging fruit, and economic factors.

To paraphrase Neal Stephenson "in the early 21st century, America only did three things well, make movies, make music and write the best code."

The author's have not provided an example of a country that is producing superior, or more innovative software compared to what is developed by companies taking advantage of the U.S. Patent system.  The reason is obvious, in an fully integrated world, it is impossible to tell what effect the Patent system has on developments country A vs country B. Without a control group, we are merely grabbing at strawmen to explain why our version of reality is the right one.

So lets all take off our sandwich boards and calm down.

Jordan Garner (Jgarner@leasonellis.com)
www.leasonellis.com